Why Putin has no reasons to send in the troops
The discussion of a possible Kremlin military invasion into Belarus was launched by the Kremlin media during long-lasting confrontation between Alexander Lukashenko and Moscow in 2019. Then, the Kremlin was coercing Lukashenko to speed up the deep integration under the Union State. This discourse had a primary goal to intimidate Lukashenko. For six months, various speakers on Russian political TV talk shows spinned this topic in different ways. Now, within the ongoing political crisis in Belarus, a wide range of American and European analysts published their articles on the possibility of Moscow’s hard power actions – including military intervention.
This alarmism is poorly justified and rests on an inadequate understanding of the Kremlin’s goals in relation to Belarus.
To remove Lukashenko, Putin needs no military intervention. It is enough for Vladimir Putin to declare publicly on Monday (or any other) morning that Lukashenko has gone too far and is not anymore legitimate. By Wednesday evening the overwhelming majority of the military and civilian ruling elite of Belarus would step onto Putin’s side. Because they are already left with no other perspective.
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